Hedgtrade Daily Risk Brief - June 24, 2026
Daily Risk Brief - June 24, 2026
Good morning, and welcome to the Hedgtrade Daily Risk Brief for June 24, 2026. Today, we’ll walk through the current market landscape, focusing on key structural themes and risk considerations across major asset classes. As always, I’ll guide you through the dashboards as we explore the data together.
Starting with the current market regime, the U.S. equity market remains in a structurally bullish phase on both weekly and monthly timeframes. This is supported by broad alignment of moving averages and positive momentum indicators. That said, near-term price action is showing consolidation and minor pullbacks within this uptrend. This suggests tactical caution rather than any fundamental regime shift. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, is moderate at 18.63, reflecting a measured risk environment without elevated stress.
As we move over to the S&P 500 structure on the SPY projection chart, the Elliott Wave framework points to a gradual rise from around 7,433 in mid-June toward 8,000 by early 2027. This scenario reflects a bullish impulse with intermittent pullbacks along the way. Weekly and monthly moving averages remain aligned to the upside, while daily momentum is currently short-biased, indicating near-term consolidation. Key resistance is noted between 7,450 and 7,475, with support levels at 7,400 and 7,350. A daily close below 7,400 would signal a deeper pullback, and a break below 7,300 could threaten the primary bull trend.
Turning to the Nasdaq projection framework, the NASDAQ 100 is structurally bullish but currently in a phase of near-term consolidation. Daily and weekly moving averages are aligned long, though daily momentum is mixed, with some short signals and elevated overbought conditions. Resistance is clustered near 29,900 to 30,000, while support lies at 29,200 and 28,500. A breakout above 30,000 would confirm trend continuation, whereas a close below 28,500 would increase the risk of a deeper correction.
If we look at volatility and liquidity conditions on the VIX and liquidity dashboard, the VIX at 18.63 suggests moderate implied volatility consistent with consolidation rather than heightened market stress. Short-term momentum indicators in equities signal caution, with potential for near-term pullbacks or sideways price action. Key risks to monitor include possible macroeconomic shifts, unexpected policy moves, liquidity changes, and geopolitical developments that could disrupt the current bullish regime.
Moving to the portfolio posture dashboard, U.S. large caps maintain a cautious bullish stance. The structural uptrend remains intact, but tactical consolidation near resistance advises selective engagement and disciplined risk management. Monitoring the 7,400 support and 7,450 breakout levels will be important. U.S. tech shares also hold a cautious bullish posture, supported by a strong structural trend but tempered by near-term overbought signals. Pullback entries near 29,200 support are favored, with a breakout above 30,000 serving as a confirmation of trend strength. U.S. small caps are neutral, likely tracking broader equity trends with caution given current consolidation. Gold, Bitcoin, and USD/JPY are all neutral, with no clear projection or technical context to form a directional view at this time.
As we review key levels and risks to monitor, the S&P 500’s resistance zone between 7,450 and 7,475 remains critical, with support at 7,400 and 7,350. A daily close below 7,400 would suggest a deeper pullback, and a break below 7,300 would challenge the primary bull trend. For the NASDAQ 100, resistance near 29,900 to 30,000 is a key supply zone, with support at 29,200 and 28,500. A close below 28,500 would increase downside risk, while a breakout above 30,000 would support continuation. Broader risks include macroeconomic shifts affecting growth or inflation outlooks, unexpected central bank policy moves, volatility spikes, geopolitical events, crowded positioning near resistance, and shifts in cross-asset correlations that could influence risk sentiment.
In summary, the U.S. equity market maintains a constructive structural backdrop, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 in established uptrends on weekly and monthly horizons. Near-term price action is characterized by consolidation and minor pullbacks near key resistance levels, with daily momentum indicators signaling caution. The moderate VIX level supports a measured volatility environment. For portfolio management, a disciplined approach emphasizing patience and selective engagement is advisable. Key technical levels should guide tactical decisions, while vigilance for downside risks remains essential. Absent new macro or policy catalysts, the prevailing scenario favors continuation of the bullish regime over the medium term, framed as a probabilistic structure rather than a certainty.
Thanks for watching the Hedgtrade Daily Risk Brief, and I’ll see you tomorrow.